Stories overrun statistics (and reason).

Best editorial I’ve read in a while.  It reveals why we overreact to memorable incidents like the Virginia Tech shootings and 9/11.

The quote “we generally give stories more weight than statistics” just about sums up the point of the article.  One of the most compelling business speakers I’ve heard made the exact same point.  The application was different (being better at communicating rather than being a more reasonable person), but the message was the same.  He brought up the example of Subway.  Which is more compelling, “6 subs with less than 7 grams of fat” (or is it 7 under 6?) or Jared – the fat man who held up his old, huge pants and said: “I’m skinny because of subway”?  Jared wins.  We remember stories much better than statistics.  We relate to them and they move us.

As Mr. Schiener points out, this is a double edged sword.  The same story that can be used for effective communication can be combined with emotions (primarily fear, but others would work) to provide motivation for unreasonable activity.  It’s something to keep in mind as we make our way through the world.  When we have a decision, be it where we eat for lunch, or who we vote into office, we would be wise to trick ourselves into looking beyond the impressionable story and evaluate how much effect the story-motivated activity will actually have.

Post-Memorial Day Blues

Ah Dilbert.  Why must you reflect the world in such a cruelly accurate way?

  

Shows

I’ve had quite the lineup of live shows to see recently (Neko Case, Andrew Bird, Bright Eyes, Ben Gibbard, Norah Jones (w/ M. Ward) ). Here are some general thoughts:

1) I think every band should be obligated to play a number of their top songs at every concert. Play three of the top ten. Please. I hate leaving shows disappointed because I only heard the most recent album. This is especially true when the recent album is only a few weeks old. Throw us a bone. Or three. (I’m talking to you Andrew Bird. And that goes double for Bright Eyes.)

2) I’m of two minds regarding the crowd singing along. On one hand, I really like it. The energy is great and you feel like you are participating in the song. This was especially true at the U2 concert I went to. Amazing! We kept it going for a good three minutes after they left the stage. But, I’m starting to think this should be a limited allowance. Keep it to the jam bands (Guster, etc.) and large rock shows, or when the band asks you to join in. It doesn’t translate so well to the smaller venues or to quieter performances.

On to the shows:

Nora Jones. Holy shit! She can flat out sing. If you have a chance to see her, especially if you can do so with someone you love, go do it. It’s worth the money. Her voice translates well in recorded form, but is many times more impressive live. There is a deeper level of texture that gets lost in the recorded version. It is performances like these that keep me coming back to live shows. Listening to music, whether live or recorded, has a transforming ability. I don’t know exactly how to describe it, other than to say it is powerful. You close your eyes and are transported to a different place. Since I like so much indie rock, it is easy to be snobbish and discount “mainstream” rock because it is pervasively popular. Norah Jones helps remind me why mainstream is good. (In the same vein, Jack Johnson puts on a heck of a live show.) M. Ward was also superb. I’ve got Post War, but will have to check out more of his music, because I only recognized one of the songs he played, and they were all good. His ability with the guitar doesn’t come through on the album, but he’s as good a guitarist as his voice is unique. All in all, A++.

Andrew Bird. I can’t say enough about Andy. Hot damn! He’s a musical genius. Truly remarkable. I really do think he operates on a different level than most musicians. He feels like a prodigy to me. Brilliant with the violin, the guitar, whistling, lyrics, his voice. Then, he can put it all together with a looping machine and literally silence and shock an entire audience. That said, I was a bit disappointed by this show. The first four songs were everything I wanted and more. Seriously. Jaw dropping amazement. And, I hate to say this (because his show from two years ago occupies the #2 spot for top live shows), but the rest of the show was somewhat lacking. I think he’s going more for a rock-pop sound these days. I think it takes away from the brilliance of his classical background. I think “Mysterious Production of Eggs” is nearly the perfect blend of violin and guitar, where “Armchair Apocrypha” focuses on guitar and uses the violin for selected flourishes. Having two guitars on the loop machine turned it in to a wall of sound that was overwhelming and exhausting. However, he did sell out the Riv, and seems to be getting more popular. So, while it doesn’t do it for me, others obviously disagree. B+

Ben Gibbard. This was the first large show I’ve seen with just a guy and his guitar. (M. Ward did a bit of it, but he had a background recording helping him out.) I really enjoyed it. I suppose I did make a good choice. Both Death Cab and Postal Service work because of Ben’s pure, pure voice. I especially liked the acoustic versions of “Photobooth”, “Recycled Air”, “Such Great Heights” (Iron and Wine version), and Neil Young’s “Harvest Moon”. B+ As a side note, I don’t recommend going to 11:30 pm acoustic shows in Wrigleyville sober. While the cute drunk chicks’ attention was flattering, the incontrollable giggling was not.

Neko Case. She had a great stage presence. She was definitely not what I expected. I think I had more of a Fiona Apple image in my mind.  Probably due to the New Pornographers affiliation and somewhat depressing feel of Fox Confessor Brings the Flood.

I could see Neko hanging out with my mom.  By that I mean that she was very down to earth, kind of quirky, and had a strong female personality.  The kind I associate with “new age” spirituality.  I don’t know exactly how to explain it, but that’s how it felt.  She put on a good show.  Very good, in fact.  I just wish there was a bit more variety.  If you like her music, you definitely won’t be dissapointed.  Solid B.  Probably should be rated higher, but I’m not the biggest fan of her music.

Bright Eyes.  I really tried to like the show.  I did.  They definitely had the largest band.  And the coolest dress (all white).  And the best visuals (‘though Andrew Bird’s twirling phonograph contraption was amazing!).  But, I couldn’t get over that they only plaid three songs from previous albums.  I do like the new album.  A good amount.  But, I think Bright Eyes is at its best when Conor Oberst is self indulgently singing about his painful angst.  The new album doesn’t have much of that, so I came away dissapointed.  But, the visuals (an awesome live video camera projection of somebody doing various things in tune to his music – etch a sketch, playing with flowers, colored dye and water, etc.) helped make up for it.  C+.

On Deck: Arcade Fire.  So freaking excited!!!!!  Their opener, Electrelane, is good.  I have no idea how to describe their music, but you can find them on myspace.  Worth a listen.

Moolah

“Money frees you from doing things you dislike. Since I dislike doing nearly everything, money is handy.” ~Groucho Marx

 Although I’m not as grouchy as Mr. Marx, his quote is apt.  I look at $ as freedom.  The more of it I have, the more options I have.  Hence, I try to be thoughtful about how I spend it, save a good deal, and try to shepherd those savings into a larger, Scrooge McDuck style pile of moolah.  Historically speaking, stocks are a good way for the lazy man (I’m not willing to start my own business) to do so, and I’ve been investing in them for a while now.  I don’t know how much my loyal fan base (ha!) invests, but I’d love to strike up a dialogue with those of you that are interested.

While I like Groucho’s quote, Mr. Jonathan Swift does it even better: “a wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart.”  So, in an attempt to come up with some wisdom, here are a few ideas from my head (and “portfolio”) for you to ruminate upon:

Chipotle Mexican Group (CMG, CMG-B)
Tasty, tasty, CMG!  How I love to eat thee!  Despite the recent gains (and potential for short term decrease in price), I like Chipotle’s chances to keep appreciating.  They have no debt to speak of, a large cash reserve, are expanding very very very quickly (yet responsibly – paying for new stores out of existing profits), and have a product with mass appeal.  Major metropolitan areas won’t be saturated for several years yet, so I’m betting that the tremendous growth continues.  The B shares look to offer more value as they trade at a substantial discount, yet have the same share of Chipotle’s profits.

Indymac Bankcorp Inc. (IMB)
Indymac is in the beleaguered mortgage industry.  They do a lot of “Alt-A” loans.  The low documentation kind where banks don’t have to verify how much money people make before they get a loan (designed for people who don’t have regular paychecks – small business owners, people on commission, etc.).  You tell them: “I make $250,000.”  They say: “Great! Here’s your loan.”)  Shockingly, these loans are riskier than other loans with the same credit quality.  But, they aren’t as scary as sub-prime mortgages.  IMB’s price has gone down over 1/3 due to the sub-prime scare.  They probably will have decreased profits and write downs due the Alt-A quality, but I don’t see it being 1/3 of the company’s value.  The people who work there evidently agree as “insiders” have been buying their company’s stock.  Add in a 6% dividend, and it seems like it’s time to follow Warren Buffet’s advice: “try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful”.
 
YM Biosciences Inc.  (YMI)
I view YMI as a “swing for the fences” stock.  Definitely volatile, speculative, risky, etc.  They have no profits, no proven drugs, and could very well “stike out”.  However, they do have a pile of cash (equal to about 70% of the stock’s value) and, according to the “experts”, several promising drugs in the pipeline.  If any one of them has a positive press release (doesn’t even have to be approved, just good news) the stock ought to jump up quite a bit.  Having a decent cash cushion should give the company a lengthy timeline to continue to develop the drugs without a dramatic decrease in price.

Fair warning – I own shares in all of the companies and am probably a biased reviewer.  But, according to a fun stock picking website (http://caps.fool.com/Index.aspx), I’m an all star.  (For the time being…)

Virginia Tech Fallout

Okay, so a high school kid gets arrested for writing this essay. Sounds like the beginning to a bad joke, no?

Sure, the kid showed some very, very poor judgment by handing that in. Definite lack of common sense. But that was the whole point. He’s a bright enough guy (straight A’s), obviously fed up with high school, about to graduate and join the military, and probably thought the assignment was stupid. So, since he obviously didn’t need to worry about getting good grades, he reacted with a devil may care, “screw this” attitude. And gets arrested. Unbelievable. Maybe I’ve always had a strong independent streak, but I just don’t understand this response in particular, and blanket “disturbing the peace” laws in general. Whenever fear enters the picture, the response resembles the sheep video below. “Gaaa! It’s scary! Run away!” Or, in human terms – “Gaaa! It’s scary. Lock it up! (or kill it!)” Where does it end? Things like this (and a “drinking in public” fiasco a couple summers ago) really make me a firm believer in sticking up for our rights. When the powers that be are frightened, they obviously are incapable of sound thought, so blanket authority to throw people in jail scares the bejeezus out of me. It makes me want to become a lawyer.

That said, anybody have good ideas how to fix stuff like this? Any positive ways to change it? (Other than bad publicity…)